It is not a matter of “if” the formerly united States of America will break up into two, three, five, a dozen, or even fifty or more independent states, but when. Just as has been the case for nations and empires since the creation of the world, the USA will crack up, split up, and either have parts taken over by other countries, or form “new countries” from the pieces.
It may be the Polish model, where all the neighbors dice and slice and digest the various chunks, usually a small part at a time. Or it may be the Roman model where the big chunks fight each other for the juicy bits in easy reach of them all, while the jackals nibble on the fringes. Or it may be the British model where the various pieces are “voluntarily” allowed to go their own way, while the core gets smaller and smaller (and more and more arrogant, all too often). Or the Soviet model of the core imploding and everyone abandoning the sinking ship. Or the Spanish model of larger groups of colonies rebelling and then shattering again and again.
But whichever model it follows (or even if it creates its own unique version), the United States is doomed. Has been doomed. Since its beginning. Nothing human lasts forever. It all ultimately falls apart, decays, deteriorates, and crashes into the dustbin of history. It isn’t just the big nasty evil empires that go away, like Assyria and Egypt and Persia, nor just the small countries like Judah and Israel, those little Italian city-states, or the bishoprics and margravates of Germany. Or Irish kingdoms. Or, even, AmerIndian tribes.
So the question isn’t “if” and it really isn’t “how” or “why” but, “when.” When will the Fifty American States (and probably a lot of pieces of many of those: California, Florida, Texas, New York and Illinois all being prime candidates for continued fragmentation) and their people decide to blow it all off?
My first inclination is to say, “the sooner the better,” with the idea that a short, sharp, and rapid collapse will lead to a better outcome both short and long term. And also that we are nearing that collapse now, that it is only a matter of a few years away, a decade or less. That is my own hope of seeing (and perhaps even helping shape in some way) the successor(s) to follow. And of seeing my children live in more freedom and enjoying more liberty than any of us do now. I’d love to set a date; say, the sixth of November, 2018. (Or maybe the fifth. In 2018, Guy Fawkes day is Monday and elections will be on Tuesday the 6th.)
But as with the Second Coming the day and the hour will not, cannot, be known. And no conspiracy can possibly set an exact day and time when they can start the process, let alone actually trigger the “Final Collapse.”
But it really isn’t a date that answers the question, “When will the Fifty States break up?” or to put it another way, “When will the FedGov and our current system of government collapse.”
It is an attitude. The Break-up, the Collapse, will take place when the right attitude exists among enough of the people (mostly, people actually living in the Fifty States) to start the final stages of the process of collapse.
Despite all the stories we see and the warnings we hear, the Fifty States are very unlikely to fall to Foreign invasion and conquest. Virtually certain not to. The Fifty (as a group) are not going to be a 21st Century version of The Man in the High Castle; not going to suffer what the Low Countries and France did in 1940 or Germany and Japan “enjoyed” in 1945. Not even a version of what first Kuwait and then Iraq got in the 1990s. I believe that IJN Admiral Yamamoto was right. At present, and barring any fabulous breakthroughs in technology (or the arrival of very advanced and competent alies), even Hawaii would be a very tough nut to crack: the other 49 would be impossible. For now.
American collapse, American breakup, might have outside influence, even the massive invasion of armies either armed or like the mobs of migrants drowning Europe, as a contributing factor. But the driving force will be strictly internal.
And that internal force is very unlikely to be some conspiracy or some rebel movement like the Rebel Alliance of Star Wars, the various Irish movements for two centuries on the Emerald Isle, or the likes of a Bolshevik Lenin, a Mao, or a Castro. Or Heinlein’s vision found in The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.
Indeed, the trigger will not be pulled by any revolutionary cabal or council, or a man (or woman) on a white horse. No Adam Selene. No Mao. No Hitler.
Rather, it will be pulled by the FedGov itself. When will “America” collapse? When the FedGov does enough different things to damage its people, itself, so that enough Americans change their attitude and say “enough is enough.”
Not even “active” rebellion then. Few, if any, of us are likely to go get our squirrel guns (those evil AR-15s and Hi-Point carbines and SKSs) and go track down the politicians and their thuggish minions. It will rather be the simple “gandian” response (as Eric Frank Russell pointed out) of “Freedom = I Won’t.” Of “enough is enough.” People will simply refuse to continue playing the game, supported in their decision to quit by family, friends, and enough in the community to give them hope in the face of verbal abuse, physical abuse, arrest, detainment and death at the hands of the tyrants, their supporters, and people unable to understand what is really going on.
I pray that day will come very soon. Because enough is enough.