This is happening…
By the time whites, foreign journalists and diplomats figure out what’s going on, it may well be too late. Given the size of some urban areas (Johannesburg was 120 kilometers wide from east to west in the late 1990s, and is probably bigger now), this will pose serious problems for the whites who will try to get out. This is because there will likely be roadblocks everywhere, beginning at neighborhood level and extending to routes leading outside the cities, with regular as well as roving roadblocks and patrols on freeways and secondary national roads. While SUVs are popular, the bulk of privately owned vehicles are compact and family sedans with limited off-road capabilities. At the same time, the vast majority of the white population is unarmed and they have not performed military service since 1992. This means they are ignorant of Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape (SERE) procedures and unable to stand against those manning the roadblocks. Add to it most whites’ mistrust of so-called right wing groups and political leaders, and initially they will be reluctant to seek safety in groups beyond their immediate family members and friends. In and of itself, joining up with friends and family will be a mistake because government analysis of telephone and internet traffic inside South Africa will have a very clear idea of such people’s networks and given a lot of this is done by computer, to indicate patterns of movement on a national scale. This will make much easier the blacks’ capture and extermination efforts, especially since the government monitors and controls the communication networks. Considering that most people have a cell phone and very few besides farmers have radio broadcast capabilities, the whites won’t know where to go or what to do for the first two weeks of the genocide.
Assuming this will be a racially motivated war, one of the most important threats to the government will be the whites in the intelligence, police and military services. Solving this problem is child’s play. All the government has to do is activate all of these units, including the reserve forces, and instruct all troops to report to base. When the troops assemble for roll call, armed squads staffed by black personnel can show up on the parade ground and take away the white servicemen “for questioning” along with a few racially diverse decoys who can be freed (assuming they don’t interfere or try to help their white comrades) once the whites are in custody. The whites will be unarmed like everybody else, because roll call is typically done on company lines before carrying on with the tasks of the day, and thus they would not have been to the weapons store to draw rifles and ammo yet. In one fell swoop on a national scale, the vast majority of whites with current intelligence, military and paramilitary experience can be taken out of action. As you will see, this will have serious consequences for the whites struggling to stay alive and escape the nightmare unfolding all around them.
Casualties will mount. There will be tens of thousands of break-ins, rapes, murders and robberies, mass looting and acts of barbarism on an epic scale. A lot of this will probably be undocumented if the media is controlled effectively and those involved are barred from carrying cell phones equipped with cameras. Effective control of information will aid the South African government efforts to conceal its agenda as long as possible and spin the narrative sufficiently to give itself room for the political maneuvering on the international stage that will come later. In the mean time, whites in individual or family groups will try to break out, perhaps for the Free State, the traditional Afrikaner heartland. Many of them will fall in the hands of roving patrols and road blocks, in my estimate providing at least 500.000 casualties nationally. Simultaneously, there will be battles fought between lightly armed groups of whites (predominantly in rural areas) and bands of black attackers supported by police and military units. Some will break through, but once on the run, chances are they will have little to no communications and resources (lacking military skills and knowledge, most do not have “go bags” or much in the way of survival equipment), and find themselves wandering aimlessly in the interior of the country. A lucky few would be on airliners which left the country just before the declaration of a state of emergency and likely ask for asylum where they land if news somehow reaches them. There are also the South Africans living overseas, numbering at least 300.000. Of them a portion have received the citizenship of their country of residence, but a lot are probably there on working visas and as tourists. It’s that bulk which will have a hard time convincing governments to let them stay if their visas approach expiry or expire in the early stages of the as yet undeclared genocide. That’s a problem, but it pales in comparison to the magnitude of what at least 4.000.000 whites will have to face in South Africa.
So, now we have 4.000.000 people of all ages scurrying around South Africa, desperate for safety. They’re actively chased by black groups varying from squad to battalion in size. There are road blocks everywhere and the whites are moving in areas between and away from roads. There’s little to no water, no food, and in the Free State which is flat like a pancake, just about no cover to speak of. Shelter is a problem too, mostly because the majority of people do not own camping tents, thus a lot of them will be sleeping in the open or under makeshift shelters. Still, they’re moving and coming across other groups. They join one another to subsequently form increasingly larger groups, until they more or less gather in a few areas. Let’s assume this happens outside the major cities- Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, Bloemfontein, Durban, Pretoria and Johannesburg. By some miracle they are able to talk to each other and begin to form a plan. Initially, this will be conflicted because a portion don’t want to give up without a fight. By my estimate, the majority of this group will be people between the ages of 45 to 75 years. These are the people who’ve served in the military and police for at least two years during the apartheid era. They have the knowledge, experience and willingness to fight, but will probably be limited by their firepower which is likely to be pistols, shotguns, bolt-action rifles and semi- to fully automatic military and civilian-grade rifles.
Due to at least two weeks of being constantly hunted, sleeping in the open, lacking food and drinking whatever water they can find, at least 60% of people will be suffering from malnutrition, dehydration, pulmonary illness, compromised immune systems and intestinal distress along with waterborne diseases due to drinking contaminated water. They won’t be thinking clearly and will find the idea of leaving the country along with its logistical problems a highly daunting prospect. Add to it a core who would rather fight to the death than leave, and there will be serious arguments. It’s quite possible the two points of view will not unite and there will be a split- an estimated 20% who will stay to fight, and the 70-80% who will leave. Those who choose to fight will be driven by two concerns. The first is the repugnance with which they’ll view the idea of giving up their country. The second, which is just as important but won’t really be acknowledged, is that the older men and women will think themselves unable to start life from scratch in a new country on another continent, and they’ll probably feel that if they can’t make it, then they might as well stay to fight.
Out of an estimated white population of 4.900.000 people, I think 500.000 will die in the first two weeks and at least 400.000 (if not more) will stay behind. That means 4.000.000 people who decide to leave South Africa for sanctuaries overseas. Okay, now what? To be continued…