To Namibia- The logistics.

Alright, so Namibia it is. What’s next? Once again, we have to assume something- the whites will either leave while under attack, or some sort of deal with the black government will allow them to go unmolested as long as they leave. Let’s say they’re allowed to leave. The next question is how, considering they’re gathered in at least 5 groups around the country. By air is one option (from SA to Europe and North America), very likely helped by foreign carriers because the South African ones will probably not do it. Even so, we’re talking about airliners, and their passenger capacity is up to 470 or so. Extracting 4.000.000 people by air means 8.565 flights with Boeing 747-8s, 10.101 flights with Boeing 777s, or 12.269 flights with Airbus A340s, assuming all aircraft have been optimally configured. Evacuation by military flights is an even worse option, mostly because the available troop transports either don’t have range or lack the capacity of civilian airliners. In that regard, the C130 Hercules lacks the range (max 3.800 kilometers), can only carry 92 passengers, and would require 43.478 flights to get 4.000.000 people out. The C-17 Globemaster has the range to reach Europe (10.390 kilometers), but its passenger capacity is 134. That would mean 29.851 flights. Any way you look at it, that’s a lot of flights which will cost a lot of money, more than the yearly aid Israel receives from the U.S., and take a very long time, months of 24/7 operations at least.

Assuming the cost per flight for a Boeing 747-8 is 450.000 euros (1.000 euros per person), at a minimum the evacuation will cost 3.854.250.000 euros without taking into account the rising costs of fuel driven by the spike in demand, the overtime for flight and maintenance crews, the cost of administrative processing and housing of refugees on arrival, along with assorted services. The financial strain, number of aircraft and crews required and disruption to global military and civilian schedules, to say nothing of the resultant social and political upheaval in destination countries, will make this load impossible to bear by North American and European governments and airlines even if they were willing to help.

 

Clearly, getting out this way is not going to happen. The other option is first for people to go by road to Namibia, then a mixture of air and seaborne evacuations from the ports of Luderitz and Walvis Bay, along with Windhoek’s Hosea Kutako International airport once they get there. In that regard, here are some of the distances involved:

Cape Town to Luderitz- 1242 kilometers. Cape Town to Walvis Bay- 1713 kilometers. Port Elizabeth to Luderitz- 1619 kilometers. Port Elizabeth to Walvis Bay- 2096 kilometers. Durban to Luderitz- 1928 kilometers. Durban to Walvis Bay- 2398 kilometers. Bloemfontein to Luderitz- 1298 kilometers. Bloemfontein to Walvis Bay- 1768 kilometers. Pretoria to Luderitz- 1556 kilometers. Pretoria to Walvis Bay- 2026 kilometers. Johannesburg is around 60 kilometers from Pretoria, so the distances are pretty much the same. As if this wasn’t bad enough, one has to consider several factors which will pose serious problems for the whites who leave and for South Africa while this is going on.

First, if we assume four people per vehicle, that means 1.000.000 cars. Since vehicles range in length between 3 and 5.3 meters, one can assume a 4 meter average, and that means 1.000.000 cars put bumper to bumper would form a queue 4.000 kilometers long, from Cape Town to 100 kilometers south of Nairobi, Kenya! Now just imagine what that means for South Africa’s road network- it will be the biggest traffic jam of all time, and that’s just if everything goes well and there are no mechanical problems, flat tires or cars run out of fuel… Divided equally between the five cities of origin, this will work out to a stream of cars around 800 kilometers long extending from each city, and we’re talking about cars being literally bumper to bumper. If we put a safe distance between them of 15-50 meters, the space taken up by these convoys increase by a factor of 3 to 10, so anywhere between 2.400 and 8.000 kilometers. One way to reduce convoy lengths is to cover at least 2 lanes, but in some cases the so-called national roads of South Africa are two-lane, with one for each way. The traffic disturbance will be colossal and the socio-economic effects wide-ranging because at the very least they’ll affect food and goods traffic at local and national level, causing serious harm to the country and its people. Of course, if they want the whites gone, that’s what it will take. Another way to ensure cars will move no matter what, is to link cars with tow bars (not rope) and basically form a train that will drag along everybody. It sounds crazy and may very well be impractical if tires burst or wear off the wheel, but these being desperate times, there is a need for desperate measures… Another problem, this one from a logistical and security perspective, is that 4 out of 5 routes (from Port Elizabeth, Durban, Bloemfontein, Pretoria and Johannesburg) have to pass through Upington in the Northern Cape province. This is due to the design of the South African road network and will make Upington a choke point for over 3.000.000 white South Africans and present one hell of a target for nearby military units (8 SAI in Upington itself, 10 SAI in Mafikeng, 3 SAI and 23 Anti-Air in Kimberley), to say nothing of criminal gangs and residents bent on taking advantage of the situation. Bloemfontein is not much better. Home to 1 SAI and 44 Parachute Regiment as well as the Tank School, it is a city traffic from Durban, Pretoria and Johannesburg is going to have to pass through. Cape Town isn’t much better. 9 SAI is in Eersterivier, there’s the Ysterplaat air force base and various units (some mechanized) including the main naval base at Simon’s Town. Furthermore, there are the gangs of the Cape Flats to contend with on the way out, and they have the vehicles, manpower and guns to cause havoc.

 

If by now people think this is bad, they’d better hang on to something, because it’s about to get worse. Cars’ fuel tanks range in capacity from around 50 liters for compacts and sedans to 80 for some pickup trucks, but the average is around 65 liters. Now, cars’ optimum fuel efficiency is reached at 120 kilometers per hour, with a fuel consumption of 11-15 liters per 100 kilometers. This will give an optimum range of 400-700 kilometers per tank. However, considering these convoys will be going at speeds anywhere between 40 and 60 kilometers per hour, they’ll burn through fuel at least 3 times faster, if not more. Given that by law citizens can not stockpile more than 200 liters of fuel (and most do not have so much as a jerry can in their homes), chances are these convoys will suck dry every gas station along the way. Because of the obstruction caused by convoys and consequences of genocide against the whites, fuel trucks won’t be able to get through to replenish gas stations, and refineries won’t have qualified operators to distil more fuel from the raw oil. Therefore, it’s very likely that at least 40% of vehicles will be abandoned due to lack of fuel and mechanical problems (most South Africans find regularly servicing vehicles a serious financial burden, so they don’t do it), which will lead to overcrowding in the functioning vehicles and increased fuel expenditure, to say nothing of the security, food, water and medical implications. It’s quite possible that after 3 days, as many as 70% of cars will be abandoned and at least 50% of the whites shall find themselves walking to Namibia. The average human being can cover a maximum of 30 kilometers per day (just after the first day, they’ll be in physical agony for 5 or 6 days), but most people are not capable of this because they’re unfit. Even if they were, and assuming they start walking somewhere around Upington, that still leaves them with more than 500 kilometers to walk through two deserts, the Kalahari and Namib, either at the height of summer in early February, or winter in June-July. Two million people trying to survive in those conditions? Yeah, good luck with that one. It can be done, but the logistical problems and resource requirements will make the exodus Moses led look like a wonderful picnic in comparison.

 

Considering a human being requires a minimum of 5 liters of water per day for drinking and cooking, this works out to 20.000.000 liters of water per day- that’s 20.000 metric tons! Most whites haven’t done military service since 1992, and what’s happening to them by now isn’t pretty. Chances are three quarters of them will be suffering from high levels of stress and will need medication to cope. Assuming just one 10mg Valium tablet per person per day (an insufficient dose, but better than nothing) and that around three quarters of them will be nearly or outright hysterical, that means 3.000.000 Valium tablets per day, which weigh 33 grams for a strip of 50. This means 1.980 kilograms of Valium per day, or just under 2 metric tons.

 

Then there’s the matter of food. The amount of physical effort coupled with psychological stress will require food to prevent collapse. The South African military issues field troops with Rat Packs, but I’ve never seen these available for sale to the public. American MREs (Meal Ready to Eat) will probably be a better choice, but then we’re talking about anywhere between 2.000.000 and 4.000.000 packs per day, which works out to 1.000 to 3.000 tons per day, distributed along the evacuation routes. In terms of proteins, South African biltong (flavored dried meat) is very good, but the cost is extremely high at R280- R600 per kilogram. A person will likely consume 350-500 grams per day, but being dried meat, it requires water to digest and will induce thirst. Making fire on the road will be a non-starter within days in the central and western regions of South Africa, because of a general lack of wood, and this will be made worse by the first evacuees who will undoubtedly cut down and burn everything within 2 kilometers of the road.

 

There are bound to be sprained ankles and other assorted injuries related to walking long distances. They’ll require bandages, plasters, slings, disinfectant, pain killers and in some cases, medical help. The locals can certainly buy on their own these things, but I seriously doubt they have the mindset necessary to think along these lines. As such, there will need to be medical aid stations every 15 or 30 kilometers. Those will have to be staffed, stocked and for sure protected by security elements. We could easily be talking about anywhere between 1 and 10 tons of equipment for each station, along with supplies for the personnel. Then there’s the matter of insulin for diabetics, heart and blood pressure medication, and antibiotics, to say nothing of those with kidney problems and people affected by intestinal distress, typhoid, rabies and snake bites. Worse, some medicines have to be stored within certain temperature ranges, or they’ll spoil. That will require refrigeration, which in turn requires generators and fuel- in other words, more problems. Fatalities will mount due to injuries, illness and exhaustion, and if the evacuees are on foot, we could easily be talking about 100.000 dead over a period of 3-6 months required to walk to Namibia.

 

Convoy security will be a nightmare. By my reckoning, there would have to be 1 vehicle with 4 armed guards for every 150 meters. Given the distances involved, we’re talking about an estimated 15.986 vehicles just on one side of the road, and that means 63.944 guards for one flank. To cover both northern and southern flanks along the evacuation routes, it would mean 31.972 vehicles with 127.888 guards. Assuming 1 R4 (Galil) rifle per guard and 3 magazines with 30 rounds, we’re talking about 127.888 rifles, 383.664 magazines and 11.509.920 bullets. That’s just a very light combat load designed to discourage disorganized attackers or looters, and we’re not even taking into account the radios and spare batteries these security teams would need. If the routes are attacked by properly armed troops, the security elements won’t last longer than 10 minutes against attack from platoons armed with a basic infantry arsenal of 3 Light Machine Guns, 3 Patrol Mortars and 27 R4 rifles with at least 3 rifle grenades for each soldier. Currently the South African National Defence Force has around 75.000 active and reserve troops across all branches. The basic security element of this white exodus will be double the number of the entire SANDF and is unlikely to be tolerated by the government. The security teams will need fuel, food, water and other logistical support, which will in turn require re-supply points at regular intervals, which in turn have to be provisioned, manned and protected from government troops, black looters and desperate white evacuees. As if this wasn’t bad and complicated enough, security elements will have to be rotated to prevent fatigue. This will either create gaps of 300 to 450 meters between teams, or increase the number of those doing guard duty…

 

Once again, if at least 2.000.000 or 50% of evacuees are on foot, there will need to be re-supply stations every 15 kilometers because walking 30 kilometers a day will very likely be beyond the abilities of at least 60% of them. The overall requirements for these stations will probably be 10.000 metric tons of water, 1.000 tons of MREs, and God only knows how much in the way of toilet paper, medication, medical staff and equipment for treating anything ranging from sprained ankles to gunshot wounds. South Africa already has problems with its water infrastructure and in some areas dams are running dangerously low due to drought. Transporting the water will be problematic to say the least, due to congested roads and breakdowns in communication along with staffing and logistical support at the supply end. Of course, one would have to hope the South African government will even entertain the idea of helping… Getting the medicine will be a serious issue due to much the same problems faced with getting water. At the same time, if the South African government routinely bungles supplying adequate quantities of medication to state-run hospitals in peacetime, you can just imagine how much worse it’s going to be in this situation. Furthermore, a large number of doctors and nurses (a lot of them whites) across all specializations have either emigrated or left the public sector. During this exodus there are bound to be even fewer available, and the evacuees will suffer as a result.

 

We have assume something again- the whites are allowed to leave peacefully and if nothing goes wrong with all the vehicles involved, there are no accidents which slow down or stop the evacuation and they drive at 40-60 km/h, it’s possible every white South African will reach the Namibian border within 40 to 50 hours. Once there, the refugees will have to choose one of three paths. Exit points will be Luderitz (by sea), Windhoek (by air) and Walvis Bay (by sea). Extraction by air will be problematic due to the cost, number of flights required and traffic handling capacity of Hosea Kutako International airport, which according to the latest available figures, only handles around 300 flights per week. Ranging from 8.000 to nearly 44.000 flights required to transport 4.000.000 people, this can take anywhere between 10 months and 4 years, clearly an impossible situation for the Namibian government. The ports of Luderitz and Walvis Bay will have to be used to aid in the evacuation. To be continued…

 

Mircea Negres

Port Elizabeth

South Africa

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